By Jaïr van der Stelt
UCR Alumnus, Class of 2013
On November 29, 2013, European leaders gathered in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius. By most standards, the purpose of the meeting was a reason to celebrate: the European Union was strengthening its Eastern Partnership ties with Moldova, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The atmosphere at the gathering, however, was far from festive: a sense of disappointment dominated the summit. Diplomatic pressure from Moscow caused Viktor Yanukovich, President of Ukraine, to back out of the deal at the last minute. Ukrainian Prime-Minister Azarov defended his president’s decision by saying that he did not want Ukraine “to be a battlefield between the EU and Russia.” As nobly pacifist as that sounds, the remark is hopelessly out of touch with reality. While real winter is setting in across the northern hemisphere, proverbial cold weather is expected for the relationship between Moscow and Brussels. Ukraine will be at the center of the frost.
Partly due to the EU’s internal divisions as well as the unpredictability of the man who has led Russia since 1999, relations have been complex. Before Russian President Vladimir Putin firmly established his power, the EU-Russian relationship was much warmer. In the early 2000s, then Italian Prime-Minister Silvio Berlusconi expressed his wish that the Russian Federation become a EU member state one day. Mr. Berlusconi might have only said so because of his appreciation for Putin’s talent for crony capitalism, but several other European leaders have voiced similar desires. Gerhard Schröder, German Chancellor between 1998 and 2005, also displayed fondness for Putin and his country’s possible accession to the Union.
These comments stand in stark contrast to developments in recent years. Russia’s relationships with the Baltic States have been increasingly poor. This is especially the case for Estonia, which, in 2007, was the target of cyber attacks originating from Russian soil. In 2008, Russia invaded European partner state Georgia. During the war that followed, the European Union condemned actions by both Georgia and Russia, but Russia’s demonstrated resolve has caused insecurity for many of the EU’s eastern member states. Ukraine itself has been the cause of a few heated disputes, mostly due to Ukraine’s late payments for Russian gas. Politicians that are hawkish on Russia have replaced Berlusconi, Schröder and French President Jacques Chirac – another friend of Putin. In the meantime, disputes have become more frequent.
Today, Ukraine is only one of many battlegrounds. During recent negotiations about Iran’s Russian-backed nuclear program, France, not the United States, was the most difficult negotiator. Surprisingly, the Netherlands has also started to feel some of the frostbite. The Dutch-Russian relationship has visibly deteriorated over the last few months, caused by a variety of issues ranging from incarcerated diplomats and activists to public criticism of Russia’s hosting of the Winter Olympics. In the long term, Russian influence over European energy supply may dwindle as Western shale gas production increases. If he intends to use natural gas to put the hurt on Europe, Putin would be wise to do it as soon as possible.
I believe it would be silly to claim a return of the Cold War. Even if Putin is eager, the West will be too sluggish to respond. The EU is too divided and the United States too disinterested to actively fight Russia’s inflated ambitions. Yet as paralyzed as the West seems without American leadership, change may be on the horizon. The new German coalition is expressing interest in uniting European policy toward Russia. History teaches us that a common enemy is often the best instigator of unity. Ukraine, in any case, will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. As pro-Europe protesters clash with police in Ukrainian capital Kiev, Mr. Azarov’s “battlefield” analogy is becoming increasingly striking. The Ukrainians have not seen the last of it – they had best brace themselves. Winter is coming.
Jaïr van der Stelt, UCR alumnus, class of 2013, is pursuing a master’s degree in Security Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. He is from Gouda, The Netherlands.
