By Koen Maaskant
Staff Writer
Awarding the Summer Olympic Games of 2020 to Tokyo seems to be another victory for current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. By delivering a strong speech in Buenos Aires, he helped secure the Olympic Games for Japan, which will host an Olympiad for the second time, after the Games of 1964, during which his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi was leading the rising Asian country. With unseen popularity, due to the success of his economic policy coined “Abenomics”, and unorganized opposition, Abe seems to be ready for reelection in 2016 and to lead the country towards the Olympic Games. However, are the Olympic Games just another addition to the strong economic revival of Japan, or does Abe have different objectives as well?
Abenomics has been praised by many for its attempt at getting Japan’s economy out of the ongoing problems that started in the last decade of the twentieth century. Ever since the start of this “Lost Decade”, Japan experienced deflationary low growth and increasing unemployment, which extended to the start of the twenty-first century. Several governments tried to reverse this period of economic decay, but none were very successful in their attempts.
After a rather unsuccessful and short first period as Prime Minister, Abe focused on reviving the Japanese economy in his second administration, which started after his December 2012 victory. Through a policy focused on boosting demand and reversing deflation, his administration is aiming to restore Japan as a strong world economy. More specifically, this is done through a plan based on “three arrows”: monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and several reforms. The Bank of Japan has changed fundamental policies in order to fulfill the wishes of Abe’s policies. His administration’s major investments in infrastructure are part of the big fiscal stimulus packages that have been proposed. However, many still doubt the progress made in terms of economic reforms, such as trade liberalization.
The Olympic Games could be seen as the fourth arrow of Abenomics because of its direct and indirect effects on the economy of Japan. Directly, according to the Japanese government, 150,000 jobs would be created and $30 billion could be added to the overall economy. Indirectly, the momentum created by the Olympic Games in combination with the current confidence in Abe’s policies, would further raise consumer and producer confidence. Even more, it could also help Abe indirectly by getting through his ‘third arrow’ of structural reforms, because of more popular support of his administration created by the Games of 2020.
However, the winning bid of 2020 could also be seen as a chance for Abe to restore Japan’s pride and eventually lead him to seek support for more nationalistic policies. His slogan used during elections, “Japan is back”, therefore cannot be only explained economically but also in a broader sense of restoring Japan’s traditions through several constitutional changes. Whereas others, as well as Abe’s government might support some of these changes, many changes are highly controversial. An example of such a controversial idea is restoring the Emperor as head of state. The failing of his first administration was partially due to this lack of support for these controversial ideas.
Other ideas are less contested, such as the amendment of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, which forces Japan to only use military force when they are under attack. However, since Abe does not possess a 2/3 majority to make this constitutional change, he is aiming at changing the process for constitutional amendments: instead of a 2/3 majority, constitutional change would only need normal majority (more than 50%). This is highly controversial, since these kind of changes touch upon the foundations of a liberal democracy. The discussion generated by these kind of actions could lead to less overall support for his administration.
Furthermore, Abe is pursuing a provocative and dangerous foreign policy in the East-Asian region. Even though Abe finally met China’s leader Xi Jingping in the beginning of September and thereby showed more openness to talk, he has been unapologetic about Japan’s war history that affected China and South Korea severely. The disrespect of such sensitive national issues could lead to more regional military tensions.
Although Abe is very popular among his constituency at the moment, he should realize that this popularity is based on the success of his economic program. By pursuing nationalistic constitutional changes and a provocative foreign policy towards other countries (especially China), Abe is risking to lose the support he gained over the past year.
If Abe wants to be a historical figure, he should use the momentum created by his successful Abenomics, combined with the winning bid of the Olympic Games of 2020, to seek support for more economic reforms. Even though there might be some caveats such as the Fukushima nuclear plant problems and the rising national debt, Abe could use this unique moment in Japanese history to revive Japan economically, seek support for reelection in 2016 and become the Prime Minister that saved Japan after decades of economic decline.
Koen Maaskant, class of 2014, is an Economics and Political Science major from Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
