Anton Moggré
UCR Class of 2015
Colombia has commonly been referred to as a “failed” country; a nation torn by violence, plagued by drug trafficking, and ruled predominantly by a combination of armed groups and corrupts politicians. However, times are rapidly changing, and in many regards Colombia can now be considered a success story.
Only a decade ago the country was in a volatile situation, with one of the highest crime and murder rates in the world and severe poverty and inequality rates. Today Colombia has beaten Argentina in terms of economic size, making it the third largest economy of Latin America. The economy is booming and welfare has become a regular benefit for many Colombians. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown by more than 500% since 2001, the country experienced a healthy economic growth of 4.3% in 2013, and has the lowest inflation rate of Latin America with 1.97%. Murder rates have decreased by over 40% and the amount of kidnappings by 90% since 2002.
Nevertheless, political instability continues to undermine real progress. The presence of guerrilla organizations (FARC-EP, ELN) and other criminal gangs (BACRIM) keep the society in a precarious situation. However, the current president of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos Calderón, started peace negotiations with the FARC in 2012, and it seems that their perceived success will be a major factor in the upcoming presidential elections in May of 2014. In short, many critics agree on one thing: these elections are vital for Colombia’s future.
Although president Santos is praised worldwide for being a successful president, internal opinions are mixed. Back in 2010, when Santos was inaugurated as the new president of the Colombian Republic, many people expected a continuation of the policies from the immensely popular, hardline and rightist ex-president Alvaro Uribe (2002-2010). With his controversial agenda called “Seguridad Democrática”, Uribe managed to pull the country together after the serious downfall during the 1980s and 1990s. However, Santos, a former defense minister under the governance of Uribe, decided to deviate from Uribe’s plans, resulting in an intense rivalry between Colombia’s two most powerful men.
Since then, Uribe and Santos have been each other’s biggest opponents. Their disagreement was only aggravated once Santos decided to start peace talks with the extreme-leftist guerrilla organization FARC. The FARC was seriously debilitated by the national security forces, which are supported by the ongoing financial and military aid from the United States (‘Plan Colombia’). This more or less forced the group to enter a demobilization program, as their ideology and plans for the country were no longer viable. However, many Colombians that voted for Santos expected him to maintain Uribe’s policies and therefore disagree with the peace dialogues and rather prefer the continuation of the “Seguridad Democrática”.
The slow nature of the process has especially frustrated many Colombians. The country is currently facing a twentieth round, and the population has gradually started to get impatient. Santos initially promised to impose a deadline of June 2013, but has pushed the date multiple times, eventually leading to no deadline at all. Statistics from a Datexco poll, “Pulse of the Country”, dating from June 2013, already indicated that 51% of the Colombians do not believe that a peace agreement will be signed and 55% of the respondents do not think that actual peace will be achieved through these dialogues.
Besides the above-mentioned facts, the armed forces are also afraid that impunity will eventually prevail in the event and that the FARC are given too many liberties, hence discrediting real justice and peace.
Uribe is vehemently opposed to the peace talks, and although he is not able to run for president, he has already developed a strategy. In 2013 he created a new political party, called el Centro Democrático, which during the parliamentary elections (last March) gained eighteen seats in the senate, one of them reserved for Mr. Uribe himself. It is now the second largest political party, after Santos’ “Partido de la U”.
The presidential candidate for el “Centro Democrático” is Ivan Zuluaga. He is, however, the weakness of Uribe’s political party. Mr Zuluaga is a rather uncharismatic and monotonous man, and therefore currently in third place in recent voting polls (13% of the votes).
Statistics of the National Survey and Consulting Center and CM& News demonstrated that the main competitor for Santos appears to be Enrique Peñalosa, a very charismatic man with a good background and a reputation for being reliable. Having been a successful mayor of Bogotá D.C., he is generally trusted by Colombians and could be a potential threat for Juan Manuel Santos, having obtained 18% of the votes.
Nevertheless, the political party he represents, the Green Alliance, was forcibly created and can therefore be considered unstable, as the two parties (the Green Party and the Progressives) have very different opinions on several important issues. First polls indicate that Santos is expected to reach first place in the first election rounds, but not with enough votes to avoid a second round.
Surprisingly, the polls have also indicated that Peñalosa has a chance of winning the second round, thus becoming the new president of Colombia. In other words, it is uncertain who will becomes Colombia’s new president, because of the diverse nature of the Colombian political playing field. Big issues, such as the peace dialogues, but also the fight against poverty and inequality (current GINI coefficient is 0.539 which is one of the highest of the world), corruption, urban safety and rural development will play a major role during the presidential elections. The expectations and stakes posed for these elections are high, and it can only be hoped that the new president will pursue further development of the country.
Anton Moggré, class of 2015, is a Law major from Utrecht, the Netherlands.
